Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Both authors two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
